The Scoreboard

Scored in the open — wins and losses, kept forever

A transparent baseline model logs a call when it diverges from the crowd. Each call is timestamped now and Brier-scored when its market resolves. Nothing is deleted. This is an honesty instrument, not an edge claim.

When calls resolve wrong, they stay in the record. Nothing is deleted, reworded, or quietly dropped — ever.

Every call (newest first)

Baseline statistical model (mean-reversion on weekly move, documented in src/model.py) — not AI, not advice, not an edge claim. Brier is snapshot-scoped: calls are only logged for markets in the top-volume snapshot at call time, which is not a random sample. Lower Brier is better. Raw data is public: ledger.json · scoreboard.json. Not financial advice.