The Calibration

Delayed-snapshot probability, odds & momentum — Polymarket public data, read-only.

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What this is

The Calibration reads prediction markets so you can see what the crowd actually expects — and holds itself to account. It pairs a read-only terminal of live Polymarket probabilities with two things almost no one else publishes: short editorial Crowd Signal briefs that describe what repriced and why it matters, and a public, append-only Scoreboard where a transparent baseline model's calls are Brier-scored when markets resolve — wins and losses kept forever. Analytics only: no predictions, no betting advice.

Recent briefs